Millions of Syrians are building new homes in new countries, even if those homes mean tents in places that are increasingly intolerant, at best. As a playground for regional actors and with a long history of venal and feckless politicians, Lebanon is particularly vulnerable however, a tanking economy coupled with the latest moves in the Israel-Hezbollah tit-for-tat tussle render Lebanon - and particularly its Syrian refugees - especially desperate and despondent. They are unlikely to flee these circumstances unless forced, but as countries like Lebanon and Turkey grow less welcoming, their options narrow considerably. Outside Syria, nearly 6 million refugees are trapped in transitory circumstances brimming with uncertainty. Across Syria, insecurity rages for approximately 6.6 million internally displaced people. Yet, it’s impossible to realistically imagine a situation involving dramatic, positive change over the next five years.ĢThe magnitude of the Syrian war’s humanitarian disaster is massive and malignant. The Syria conflict can and almost surely will get uglier - particularly in and around Idlib. 1While the conflict in Syria is dynamic, some elements are nevertheless clear: Bashar Assad continues to gain control over large swathes of territory, courtesy of Russia, Iran, and various clients Assad has failed to establish security or stability (let alone normalcy) in recaptured areas competition between and among Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime will deepen as the dust settles and divisions remain rampant among anti-Assad elements.

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